The Packers know who their opponent is on Saturday evening. They will face the San Francisco 49ers Saturday night in Green Bay for the ninth time in playoff history with the series tied at 4-4.
The 49ers have won their last three playoffs, and that’s not to say those games are particularly important at the moment except to say the ninth iteration adds to written history. For Matt LaFleur and Kyle Shanahan, the standoff records are 2-2 including the playoffs. Shanahan 2-3 vs. packages since 2017.
And someone in the media, or indeed, likely brought up the 2005 draft where the 49ers went through the drafting of Aaron Rodgers. We’ve all heard the story before. But this will be the fourth time Rodgers has faced the 49ers in the playoffs and he will be looking to win his first game against them.
These teams combined in Week 3 with the Packers winning a tight 30-28 game in the final minute of the game when Rodgers fired two passes quickly for 42 yards to set up the game-winning field goal for Mason Crosby. In that match, the 49ers’ attack appeared in the second half after quarterback Trey Lance had them reserve the board in the closing seconds of the first half.
But what is the basis of the 49ers attacking, what do they do well in the game of passing and running, and where can players limit what the 49ers do offensively for a chance to win?
49ers basic running game concepts
The 49ers are mostly an out-of-area running team. Everything they do when attacking is about putting defenses in a horizontal struggle whether it’s from the outside to the edge of the horizontal spans, the passing game creates that space for wide receivers to gain maximum yards after the catch.
The primary running game for the 49ers offense though, is the outer zone and they can access it either via traditional delivery or by incorporating the tossing element into it where the toss puts the ball into the hands of running a little faster so he can come down to the edge faster. In this particular play, linebacker Kyle Juszczyk does not line up in a traditional linebacker alignment.
Garoppolo sends him in a jet through as he blocks the liability to block the first defender inside the narrow end after making sure the narrow end defender doesn’t slip inwards. Notice how he cuts it to prevent the defender from taking an inside path before moving on to the next power up defender.
The 49ers also have several counters if the defense begins to edge out more aggressively and sell it off to stop the outflows.
For defensive ends wanting to go strong, the 49ers will run the concept of “Lightning,” a backyard wind game in an outdoor area that takes advantage of the defensive back end’s aggressiveness in pursuing runs from behind. The running procedure itself looks like a counter with the back taking a counter move before slashing the other way.
The Colts’ rear defensive end chases after a run upon seeing this counter move and as he advances, obstructs the sieve barrier and overtakes it to drive a block over the edge. This is an effective running game especially against teams with wide edges.
Since the 49ers like to run a lot of the outside area toss, they will also use the same toss action to run inside the area.
If the defense sees a throwing action, they push to the edges aggressively and dribble out of the penalty area. Back sifting blocks the trailing edge and the backswing can hit the running lane above the center effectively because there are no second-tier defenders until he’s seven yards old.
Running with Deebo has sped up the 49ers’ onslaught and they don’t really use it any differently than anyone else holding back in their scheme. But his effect on defense is to keep them in subpacks like nickels and remove an extra large body off the field in favor of more speed.
This might work against traditional 11-man passing notions, but taking Deebo into the backfield as a running back is much better than the 49-man running game now than staying at 21.
The 49ers could be attacking more physically against smaller defensive personnel in the game as they were against Dallas in the wildcard round last Sunday, using it to sweep, wide, and 11-man indoors.
The Packers defense finished the season 28th in running DVOA defense, the Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric that measures how well an attack gains 60% of the remaining yards toward first touchdown or prevents an attack from gaining those yards.
Some of these rankings may be influenced by performance against Cleveland, second Chicago, and Baltimore. But the Packers can’t afford any loopholes against the 49ers running game.
The Packers will have to rely on Preston Smith and Rachan Gary to eat double teams and prevent the 49 blockers from making it to the second level at their wide distances. In the clips above, both Smith and Gary were able to eat the double teams that kept second-tier players like Devondri Campbell free and clear to do open tackles.
Campbell has had an entire pro season due to tackles like the one in the second clip above where he plays hard on the slopes and tracks inside Debo and tackles him in space.
49ers basic passing game concepts
The passing 49ers live in the middle of the field and are built on getting receivers into space, creating yards after the catch, and taking advantage of the Garoppolo’s quick release. The less he thought, the better.
Shanahan has built a passing game that allows their best players to do the bulk of the heavy lifting. Garoppolo has a separated tendon in his hand, which makes passing more difficult for the 49ers quarterbacks.
As a result, Shanahan had to get creative to get his attacking some yards and points. Here against the Rams in Week 18, the 49ers have a dagger concept that’s usually called the vertical stretch concept.
Shanahan adds an element of horizontal stretch to it with Deebo on jet action to flat. The movement draws two defenders into the numbers and the wide road occupies safety. Jauan Jennings’ receiver is wide open for landing.
In another similar theatrical design opposite Minnesota in early December, Garoppolo managed to hit a very narrow window for Jennings on a pothole. Shanahan wanted to make room for throwing and the play design was to pull the flat defender out the window with Kettle’s flat, shallow road, and pull linebacker Eric Kendricks across the field with Trent Sherfield’s deep cross. Kendricks didn’t take the bait, so Garoppolo waited a mark longer and threw the pass into Kendricks and rode the pass between safety and corner.
49ers 3rd down play calling
Packers will need to be able to stop the 49ers from getting into third and fourth place or as low as possible. If they don’t, it could be a long night for Green Bay. In these situations, 49ers like to use a variety of concepts that give receivers the freedom to dictate the path of “choice”. In the selection path, the receiver has three options at the top of his path: cut inside, cut out based on the defender’s leverage, or sit in the zone.
The 49ers make great use of this concept and Garoppolo never goes anywhere else. Paths are combined with other methods designed to free up space and give the receiver running the 1-on-1 selection path. In recent weeks, these have been drive extensions for the 49ers, especially against the Rams and the Cowboys.
In the first game, the 49 players 2-for-5 were third in the first half and didn’t turn out third, sixth or more. In the second half, the 49ers converted four third touchdowns to the first touchdown that was over eight yards to go with a third turn down due to a defensive interference.
Overall, the 49ers only turned 31.7% of the time in the 3rd, 6th or greater positions. In positions of third, fifth or less, 49 players have converted 52.6% of the time (both stats provided by Pro Football Reference Stathead). The Packers will need to be clear up front and force the 49ers’ attack into more third and long positions. The key to that is how they move around Kenny Clark.
Clarke was able to destroy the Shop in the Week 3 game which is a big reason to win the packs: because they pretty much took control of the trenches and turned the 49ers into a one-dimensional passing team. Yes, the score was close, but the 49 players can’t count on Garoppolo to carry the burden, even though he has shown at times that he can. If the beams are consistent, this happens much less likely.
prospects
The 49ers aren’t an easy match for Green Bay but they go as Garoppolo goes. And now Garoppolo is dealing with a thumb injury and now a shoulder injury he suffered in a wildcard match against Dallas. Packers have the tools to limit them again but they can’t give up the third and long games against the 49ers attack, the thing that kept the 49ers in the game in Week 3. Take care of that and move on to the NFC Championship.